Population Growth – a Key Problem of Our Time
Introduction
We are
three authors, public speakers and political activists, who have been
publishing and campaigning in the fields of ecology, economy and social
politics for decades (see also the brief CVs at the end of this text). One of
us, Saral Sarkar, an Indian citizen, who spent the first 45 years of his life
in India and has been living in Germany since 1982, knows the realities of life
in both worlds – that of a developing and emerging industrial country and that
of a rich industrialized country – very
well.
While the
manifold symptoms of the ecological and humanitarian crises are becoming
increasingly visible, it is astonishing that a very weighty and obvious
contributing cause thereof is hardly being mentioned anywhere – the continuing
strong growth of human population (globally, and especially in many conflict
areas). As is certainly well known, the world population recently passed the 8
billion mark.
We are well
aware that we must not reduce the analysis of the roots of the various crises
to population growth and that this sensitive issue requires a cautious
approach. Nevertheless, we regard this issue as clearly underrated and
neglected. There is practically no public discourse on the subject. The issue
tends to be suppressed and hushed up.
So we
request you to read and consider our position on the subject, which is briefly
outlined below. We are looking forward to your feedback, your support and your
taking action in line with our position.
The problem
The world's
population continues to grow rapidly – by an
astounding figure of 85 to 90 million people per year. Figuratively speaking,
the world is growing by one Germany or ten Austrias per year, at least in relation to the population of these countries.
In which
houses will these newly added people live, where will they get their food from,
how will they be mobile, what jobs will they have (if they will have any at
all)? Will they ever have the chance of (and the material means for) a
fulfilling and decent life?
This growth
is taking place on an already "groaning planet," on which the
limits to growth have already been reached, as many indicators suggest. The
ecosphere, on which we as species homo sapiens and all other species depend for
survival, has already been severely affected.
The growth
of the world population goes hand in hand with the various pressures on our
natural environment, such as growing greenhouse gas emissions, soil consumption
and consumption of mineral and biogenic resources.
It would of
course be wrong to blame population growth alone for these pressures. But it
would be just as wrong to ignore and play down its significance. Since the
beginning of industrialization, per capita consumption of these resources has
grown even faster than the world population; but both driving forces working together are exerting massively
increasing pressure on the ecosphere and our planetary resource base.
It is also
becoming very clear, though many or most people do not want to admit it, that technological
innovations alone will not be sufficient to "save" us. For
example, the energy transition, which is being seen by many as a key project
for sustainable development, will not be realizable in the expected way. On
closer examination, one can see that this project has too many weaknesses,
dilemmas and limitations.
Ultimately,
long-term survival of mankind and a fairly good life for all can only be
possible in a degrowth society,
whatever political form it might take. A degrowth society means that, on the
one hand, human population growth must come to an end and that, subsequently,
population should even shrink to a significantly lower, more sustainable level.
And, on the other hand, it means, that also material consumption per capita
cannot remain at the current high level, and that it must therefore also shrink
significantly.
Although
this reduction in per capita material consumption primarily applies to rich
countries (in the so-called "global North"), it also applies to more
than a few people in emerging and developing countries who have already
achieved a relatively high standard of living. It holds true also because in
these latter countries, the aspirations of most people after achieving a high
material standard of living cannot be realized – and if at all they could, then
only at the high price of further damaging the local and global natural
environment.
Unless we
at least put a halt to population growth, and a subsequent decline in global
population takes place, a sustainable, ecologically sound and just economic
system cannot even be imagined. Either this shrinkage of
population is brought about in a conscious and planned way, or it happens in a disorderly, chaotic
manner in the form of collapsing societies.
It is no
coincidence that many conflicts and wars take place in regions where population
has been growing almost unchecked for a long time. The Middle East conflict,
that has recently again heated up, also has a strong demographic component,
even if this is not the focus of media reports and analyses.
Like so
many things in the world, population dynamics too differs strongly from
region to region. While there are some regions that have already undergone
a demographic transition, i.e., where the population is not growing any longer
or may even be declining, there are other regions where population is still
growing massively and a demographic transition is not in sight.
Particularly
Sub-Saharan Africa is a hotspot in this regard. UN forecasts say that the
population in this region will at least triple by 2100 (unless something is
done against that). Considering the instability and the multitude of problems
that already exist in this large region, this prospect of a population
multiplication in the coming decades can only be understood as a demographic
catastrophe, a catastrophe that the international community is virtually
watching helplessly.
But there
are unsustainable, problematic developments in other regions of the world
too. For example, the population of India, now the most populous country in
the world, is growing by around 14 million per year. This means that more than
15 percent of global population growth is taking place in this country alone.
And the "solution"? Is there one at all?
If one
accepts this outline of the problem as essentially correct – at least to a large extent or in key areas – many
questions arise:
What
can we do? Can we influence the demographic development at all, especially if
the people in question live in distant geographical regions and in other
cultures?
Is it even legitimate for "us in the
global North" (or the West) to think about what others – countries,
regions, groups of people – should or may do? Is it not perhaps presumptuous
and hence inappropriate in view of our colonial past characterized by
exploitation?
And are not
the contentions of critiques right that any population policy actually
implemented has shown that it is inherently reactionary and inhumane?
We believe,
despite all such concerns and objections, that it is time to overcome this
defensive attitude and bring the subjects
of population growth and population policy out of the taboo zone.
Stopping population growth is not only a planetary necessity. It is also in the
interest of the countries that are overburdened in every respect by a rapidly growing
population.
Population
policy is not reactionary per se. As in other policy areas, it depends on the
specific form it takes. The highest possible degree of participation, education
and self-empowerment of the people concerned, which builds on their own
maturity, prevent abuse. There are already encouraging examples of this here
and there, such as the educational work of Hermione Quenum in Benin.
So what can be done?
1. Make it
visible, make it a topic for discussion!
We are well
aware that it is particularly difficult for politicians from rich countries and
countries with a colonial past to address this issue publicly. But they get
many opportunities to draw, in confidential talks, the attention of their
counterparts of the global South to the urgency of the issue.
Clarity in
communication is particularly important. For example, by making it clear that
high numbers of children do not mean more wealth, but, on the contrary, even
more poverty and underdevelopment. And that it is not only "evil forces
from outside" that are responsible for underdevelopment and lack of
prospects of better times in these regions. It must be made clear that there is
also a substantial home-made contribution to this bad situation and that it
includes, first and foremost, high population growth.
There are
many other ways to make the problem of population growth visible at various
levels: at the grassroots level, through local, regional and global NGOs;
within the framework of UN organizations, through international conferences, at
which appropriate initiatives, measures and encouraging examples are presented,
etc. Above all, it must be made clear everywhere that the commitment to
preserve our livelihoods and a healthy environment is closely linked to a
sensible population policy.
2. Reorientation of development cooperation
(development aid)
In our
view, a very effective approach is a reorientation of development cooperation
(aka development aid).
In the
“South,” national population policy measures (see point 3) require foreign funding.
Politicians from countries of the "North" can offer to fund programs
in the problem countries that have population policy objectives. Such dedicated
funds would be among the most effective types of development aid.
Allocation of funds for development aid (or development cooperation) can be
made dependent on the existence of a population policy and/or on the
effectiveness of existing population policies. Establishment of monitoring,
support and advisory mechanisms also requires external financial support.
3. Population policy measures
There
is a whole range of non-repressive measures that have already been tried out in
various countries.
These include:
·
Awareness and education programs, especially for young
women and girls
·
"Positive campaigning", e.g., advertising
for small families (for two-child families), as was done in India in the 1970s
·
Free provision of contraceptives
·
Financial incentives for voluntary sterilization (of
men and women)
·
State guarantee of a pension for the poorer classes,
which is linked to not having more than two children
·
Establishment of advisory and support structures as
part of development cooperation (see also point 2).
Who we are
Initiative Population
Policy
Dr. Bruno Kern, born 1958, author, translator, public
speaker. Published, among others, "Das Märchen vom grünen Wachstum" (2019)
[Tr. The Fairy Tale of Green Growth]. Lives and works in
Mainz.
Saral Sarkar, born 1936 in West Bengal (India), lived in India until 1982, then
in Cologne. Author and activist. His publications include "Eco-Socialism
or Eco-Capitalism? A Critical Analysis of Humanity's Fundamental Choices"
(1999).
Dr. Ernst Schriefl, born 1969, works in a firm for building physics and energy
efficiency. Also active as author; e.g., book "Öko-Bilanz" (2021) [Tr.
Ecological Balance-Sheet]. Lives and works in Vienna.
